Putin is holding back on Ukraine — letting them attack first. Just like Georgia . Georgia attacked some Russian peacekeepers, and Russia had a 24 hour war with Georgia.
Attacking Russian Crimea will be Putin’s reason to go in and destroy the Neocon regime in Kiev. Putin is very sensitive about public perception — he doesn’t want to be an invader, he wants to be a defender who is forced to invade to end the source of the threat.
I just finished Oleg Kalugin’s book THe First Directorate, and I could see the possibility that Russian agents in the Ukrainian government purposely do a Crimea invasion just to give Russia a reason to fight back and destroy the Kievs-Neocon regime. Ukraine is home territory for the Russians. The neocons are a visiting and very unwelcome team on thsi turf.
The most surprising news of the day comes not from the contested region, but from Kiev where Ukraine’s president Poroshenko appointed a new Ukraine defense minister, Valeriy Heletey. His first promise? To not only re-engage Russia in Crimea, but to be victorious in doing so. From BBC: New Ukrainian Defence Minister Valeriy Heletey has promised that the army would retake Crimea, restoring the country’s territorial integrity. “Addressing parliament in Kiev, he said: “There will be a victory parade… in Ukraine’s Sevastopol.” Lt Gen Heletey, 46, was approved by MPs in Kiev after being recommended by Mr Poroshenko as someone who would work day and night to restore the military capability of the country’s armed forces. His remark about Sevastopol was applauded by the chamber. We are confident Putin had a different, and far more amused reaction to the statement.